The World Health Organization’s metric of public health burden is the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years of life lived with disability. Cirrhosis was responsible for 26.8% fewer DALYs in 2019 than in 1990, which is positive.
Although NAFLD can occur in lean people, its prevalence correlates strongly with the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes. NAFLD has a prevalence of 32% in the Middle East, 31% in South America, 27% in Asia, 24% in the United States, 23% in Europe, and 14% in Africa. The prevalence of cirrhosis among these patients is unclear, but the prevalence of NAFLD is increasing and will continue to do so.
A modelling study predicted changes in the prevalence of NAFLD from 2016 to 2030 for 8 countries: China, Japan, United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and United Kingdom. The largest increase will come in China. Moreover, the number of patients with cirrhosis due to NAFLD will also increase in all countries, with the largest increase in France.