Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. It is not well understood, however, which individuals with NAFLD are at highest risk for cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to determine the factors associated with incident cardiovascular events in a prospective cohort of individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD without pre-existing cardiovascular disease. After a median follow-up time of 5.2 years, 26/285 (9.1%) individuals experienced an incident cardiovascular event. Advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4) on biopsy was a significant predictor of incident cardiovascular disease, and this persisted on multivariable analysis (SHR 2.86, 95% CI 1.36-6.04) after considering relevant covariates, including cardiovascular risk scores, which were not independent predictors. Of the non-invasive indicators of fibrosis, the NAFLD fibrosis score was the only independent predictor of cardiovascular disease. Other histologic features, including steatohepatitis, were not associated with incident cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, these data suggest that liver fibrosis is an independent CVD risk factor.